On AI doomerism

• So what's going on?

This is a reflection on this post (of the same title) that I thoroughly enjoyed, by Flavio Copes.

"I am the genuine article, therefore I don't have to try. I just have to be. You, on the other hand, have to try any passing bandwagon, because what else have you got?"
— Meera Syal, Life Isn't All Ha Ha Hee Hee

It seems that a great many people are feeling the pinch of a tech job market squeeze that seems to have lasted for over 2 years now.

A lot of folks seem to be quick to dump the blame for this squarely on "AI".

And what can you expect when the tech CEOs are all doing their stupid dance, touting the latest fadtech as the breakthrough that justifies them laying off swathes of employees in short-sighted attempts to prop up shareholder value?

A more self-destructive spiral I have not seen.

But the truth is masked by this conclusion.

I don't believe for one second—and I don't think a lot of other popcorn-crunching devs believe it either—that "AI" is remotely close to the claims being made by these flaccid excuses for billionaires.

Something else is afoot.

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"First, there’s a lot of people, and I mean a LOT, that went into programming and didn’t have a genuine passion for the job. For them, it’s just a way to make money."

Hard agree! I've seen some of these people.

I don't believe it's a bad reason to get into any line of work, but in my experience, they have made for some of the worst developers.

Not because of a lack of technical capability (I truly believe almost anyone can learn to program well), but the money motivator only takes you so far.

Like any job worth doing, it is hard.

The rewards come to those who continue to put in the effort.

If you've based your decision to become a programmer on seeing someone else claiming success on social media, I can only tell you that you've been duped.

The vast majority do not have this story.

And even some of the ones that appear to, don't.

"Very few jobs out there give those kind of perks: high pay and comfortable life."

It's all relative. My personal experience with programming hasn't been "high pay... comfortable life".

I've worked damn hard for a very long time.

I still don't feel sufficiently compensated and I've just had my best year ever. And that as a freelancer!

I've never seen programming (or really any possible career path) as "easy".

Currently "AI" makes my life a bit easier, but nothing about using it in and out every day to build things convinces me that it's going to do away with my job.

"To them, those people that care about the craft, AI is not a problem at all."

I totally agree.

¶So what's going on?

"post-COVID companies hired like crazy"

"the end of the zero-interest rate period"

"increased competition" from the potential of a globally shifted workforce

"investor pressure"

"AI"

Look, there's not just one answer.

That's clear.

And these are just part of the picture.

I have another theory: a huge factor at play here is that, for most of these businesses, their revenue is based on ads.

Therefore, consumers (for the most part) are the driving force of a lot of the top tech companies' bottom lines.

But the consumers are getting sick and tired of:

• Privacy violations.
• Crypto scams.
• Income disparity between the workers and the C-suite.
• Ads! Ads! Ads! everywhere, all of the time.
• The lies and manipulation of it all.

Many of these tech companies haven't innovated anything meaningful in a long time.

They're jumping on AI right now because they're all hoping they'll discover the next big breakthrough and unlock megabucks.

And in the meantime they prop themselves up by touting eye-watering sales figures (and net losses) of their next "always-on, internet connected, touchscreen, AI-powered, super agent whosawidget."

Or their "giant, face-hugging, reality-distortion spectacles that no person in their right mind would be caught dead wearing in public"

But are any of these "advances" really moving the needle on solving the bigger problems we're facing as a species?

No.

So the ads and PR BS isn't working as well as it used.

If your business model is to be a big promotional platform that relies on real human beings to view the content that your advertisers want to promote, then you have to bring real value.

And if you're the advertiser whose whole business model depends on crazy ad spend to penetrate into and reach your target market of what you hope are real people, then you need a lot of cheap money to get there.

It's a poisoned lake. These big fish have done it to themselves.

Sure, they're big, so they'll survive for a while, but it's still terminal.

The good news is that, in their wake will come true innovators.

I expect the next few years to be something of the beginnings of a rebirth period in this constant boom-bust circus.

And I genuinely believe that "AI" will enable a lot of that.

It is already enabling small teams to move faster whilst staying lean.

In time, these little fish will grow and once again find opportunity in hiring fresh talent.

Get in with those companies now while they're still small by seeking them out and starting a conversation.

It might not be a job right away, but it's building the relationship.

"You have to have a network... Local meetups, and local conferences... Go a few days before... hang out before the conference... Go to the after parties. That’s where you actually meet and get to know people."

This is the way.

You know, I've never once applied to FAANG.

I've never felt worthy.

In most cases, I don't meet the requirements as I don't have a degree.

And honestly, the companies and their leaders do not align with my values at all, so I'm extremely disinclined to apply.

But imagine if someone like me, a "self-taught" nobody dev, with no recognisable education, only having a connection or two, skips the queue ahead of you and lands a job at the next great innovative tech company.

All for the sake of saying hello and getting to know people.

This is why, especially in the age of "AI", cultivating genuine relationships with real people is so important.

Work on silly side projects (if you have the capacity).

Read!

Share what you're working on. Share what you enjoy. Retweet. Reply.

Write about it—in the abstract if you have to.

Make videos.

Do a podcast.

Go meet new people, in and out of your field.

Don't do it for the algorithm, or the likes and subscribes.

Do it for the genuine relationships.

Because in a world of fakes and forgeries, the genuine article sticks out like a sore thumb!